Conjura's Products to Restock view within the Forecasts dashboard helps you predict future sales and get intelligent restock recommendations. By combining your historical sales data with advanced forecasting models, Conjura tells you exactly what to reorder and when, so you can avoid stockouts and reduce overstock situations.
Setup Requirements
To use Conjura forecasting, you'll need:
Required:
At least 3 months of historic sales data from your eCommerce platform or ERP
Accurate inventory tracking within your eCommerce platform or ERP
Lead times and target days of stock configured in the Custom Data Import section (found under Connect & Import > Custom Data Import)
If not configured, we'll default to 14 days lead time and a target of 30 days of stock for every product
Optional (but recommended):
Minimum Order Quantity and Pack Size (Units) configured in Custom Data Import
Without this, we'll recommend the exact units needed, but won't be able to calculate pack quantities
An ERP connection for purchase order visibility
Without this, forecasts will still work, but restock recommendations may suggest ordering products that already have stock on the way
How It Works
Prediction Windows
Every product gets its own custom prediction window based on its specific lead time and days of stock:
Prediction Window = Lead Time + Days of Stock
For example, if a product has a 14-day lead time, and you want to maintain 30 days of stock, Conjura will forecast 44 days into the future for that product.
Forecasting Models
Conjura uses sophisticated statistical models to predict future sales. These models analyze your historical sales patterns and account for:
Seasonality: Recurring patterns in your sales (e.g. higher sales during holidays)
Trends: Overall growth or decline in product performance
Marketing impact: How your ad spend influences sales
We've also built in additional features to handle real-world scenarios like sales spikes, inconsistent ad spend, and the natural delay between ad spend and conversions.
The models run in real-time based on the filters you apply in your dashboard, so you always see predictions relevant to your current view.
Understanding Lead Time in Forecasts
Not all forecasted sales are relevant for restocking decisions. If you order stock today, it won't arrive instantly; we need to account for the lead time.
Conjura forecasts for your entire prediction window, but only uses the post-lead-time forecast for restock recommendations. This prevents you from overstocking for sales you'll miss before the new stock arrives.
Example: If you have a 14-day lead time and order stock today, you can't fulfill orders during those 14 days with the new stock. So while we show you the full forecast for transparency, restock recommendations focus only on the sales expected after the lead time has passed.
Understanding the Metrics
Predicted Product Units Sold
The total number of units we expect will sell during the entire prediction window
Calculated using our forecasting model, based on your historical sales and ad spend
Predicted Product Units Sold Post Lead Time
The portion of predicted sales that occurs after the lead time
This is what drives restock recommendations, ensuring you don't order stock for sales you'll miss
Closing Stock
Current units in stock, pulled from your eCommerce platform or ERP
This is your available inventory right now
Quoted Units to Be Delivered
Units already on order from suppliers (requires ERP connection)
Pulled from your purchase order data
Without an ERP connection, this will be zero
Stock Shortfall
How many units you're short by after accounting for current stock, incoming orders, and predicted sales
This is the core metric that determines if you need to restock
Restock Status
Your restock status is determined by comparing your available stock (current + incoming) against your predicted needs:
In Stock
Available stock covers all predicted sales during and after lead time
No action needed
Restock
Available stock is insufficient to cover predicted sales after lead time
Action required: order more stock
Restock Units & Packs
If you have Minimum Order Quantity and Pack Size configured, Conjura calculates how many packs you need to order to meet your stock shortfall, while ensuring you also meet minimum order requirements.
If you don't have these configured, Restock Packs and Restock Units will both be exactly equal to your Stock Shortfall, i.e. Conjura will just recommend the exact number of units required.
Tips for Best Results
Configure lead times accurately: Different products have different lead times. Taking the time to set these correctly will significantly improve your restock recommendations.
Connect your ERP: If you use an ERP system for purchase orders, connecting it to Conjura prevents duplicate ordering and gives you a complete view of stock on the way.
Set minimum order quantities: If your suppliers have MOQs or pack size requirements, configure these in Custom Data Import for more practical restock recommendations.
Review regularly: Check the Products to Restock view weekly or based on your typical ordering cadence to stay ahead of potential stockouts.
Need help setting this up? Reach out to us via the chat or email us at support@conjura.com.